The
objective of the BCA is to assess the benefits and costs of the applications
for the
entire United States.
The
first step is to develop a “baseline” scenario (which includes connected vehicle infrastructure
installed for safety and mobility applications), this is the world without AERIS
applications and includes projections of fuel prices, vehicle miles travelled, etc.
The
second step is to estimate benefits for the applications on a unit basis (i.e.
per vehicle).
These values are then monetized ($) for each environmental benefit category (GHG and
criteria pollutant emissions and fuel savings). The unit benefits and monetary values
change over time, this is accounted for in the model.
The
third step is to estimate the costs on a unit basis (i.e. per road mile) associated with the
applications. Cost elements may have capital and/or operating costs as well as a life
associated with the element. These are accounted for in the model.
The
deployment assumptions for baseline RSEs, OBEs, and applications are utilized to determine
the number of applications deployed and requirements for cost elements and
benefit potential. The model calculates benefits and costs for the nation for each year
in the analysis and net present value (the discounted (7%) value of the cumulative
project).
There
is a great deal of uncertainty and we conducted some initial sensitivity analyses including
testing assumptions related to deployment as well as compliance rate.
A
similar model is being used for analyses in the Road Weather Program and CDDS