•Exploring the challenge before us

•Consider how our efforts today are foundational

•Propose the ways in which we could respond to the emerging changes

•Define agency considerations and next steps

For the second major bullet:

•The costs to all travelers is from the ORNL study

•The freight costs are for all types of weather, not just snow, ice & fog.

The third major bullet is from the 2011 study by the American Highway Users Alliance entitled, “The Economic Costs of Disruptions from a Snowstorm.”

Before we get to the research, let’s start by putting it into context.  As you’ll see from all of these graphs, the United States has, in any given year, faced a number and a range of weather events.

The U.S. has sustained 114 weather/climate disasters over the past 31+ years in which overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion. The total standardized losses for the 114 events exceed $800 billion. May I ask you to keep this visual in mind as we go to the next one.

Also - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

This table shows that the number of events each year trends up. 

The U.S. has sustained 114 weather/climate disasters over the past 31+ years in which overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion. The total standardized losses for the 114 events exceed $800 billion. May I ask you to keep this visual in mind as we go to the next one.

As apparent, there is wide variation from year-to-year, but the trend shows an increase in the number of events.  The problem is that there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the changes we will see in the future.  The regional climate models predict changes in precipitation, temperature, etc., but in some cases there will be increases, in other cases there will be decreases, and in yet other cases it could go either way.  At the end of the day they are models and they are estimations.  Making decisions around estimations is risky.  At this point we know that changes in precipitation aren’t going to be uniform across the country, so our response must not be uniform either.  It’s this uncertainty that makes it very difficult decide who should do what.  That said, there are some aspects of the changes that we know and can help shape our actions… [next slide on impacts].

Source - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

As the frequency of events increases, we must consider total costs, not just costs from an individual event.  Yes, the costs of “complete failures” are very large, on an individual basis.  But if we add up the costs of all the “reduced capacity” events, which happen much more frequently than the “complete failures,” we see that they have the bigger impact.

Our current efforts to develop a proactive approach to highway operations serves as the underpinning for everything that may hit us in years to come.  Here’s what we mean by “proactive operations.”

The key points are that we are promoting the institutionalization of proactive operations, and approaching it systematically instead of ad hoc.

Road Weather Management illustrates the role that ITS plays.

First, there is data collection - as captured in this screen shot of the Clarus System, which shows where Road Weather Information Systems are installed in the upper Midwest.

Second there is decision support - as captured in this screen shot of the Maintenance Decision Support System, which is a perfect example of using forecasts to support proactive operations and maintenance.

As you know, Paul Pisano has headed our Road Weather Management Program for many years.  We realized that it was now time to look at the longer-term climate and weather changes, their impacts and the potential adaptation strategies and what that means System performance operational issues as part of the adaptation strategies which are primarily looking at land-use, design, and structural integrity.

We started by asking these questions.

To respond to those shifts, what is the appropriate level of funding and other resources that will be needed?  While we know that a number of coastal states will be affected, do we also need to consider what if any affects these rising sea levels will have to major river system base levels and the possible effects on the transportation network?  Would those affects be due to large-scale drainage changes?  If it is likely that the changing weather environment will increase the number of disasters, what is needed to help prepare emergency transportation operations?  Once we understand how and where transportation will be affected, what is needed in operations to respond to these shifts?

We don’t have all the answers to those questions, especially since there is so much uncertainty surrounding the emerging changes.  However, we know enough to start anticipating the impacts upon specific sectors, and considering their potential responses.  The next four slides explore the impacts on the following four sectors, as well as the potential responses for which they can start planning.

Once we achieve consensus around these impacts, we can then map out a strategy that prepares us for the oncoming changes and enables us to continue to be proactive.  This includes the significant role that ITS will continue to play.

Travelers & Traveler Behavior Response

Increased exposure to hazardous driving conditions (e.g., flooding, road surface conditions, smoke from wildfires)

•Increased need for timely, accurate and relevant traveler information from TMC’s and private sector information service providers to support route choice, departure times

•Less consistent mode split impacting day-to-day congestion and safety issues

•Potential mode shift to/from alternate modes, e.g., using transit, biking, or walking

•Increased emphasis on carpooling and teleworking  to reduce impacts to highways

•Investigate regional climate change impacts to understand how impacts may affect traveler mode and route choice in both the short- and long-terms

Human health impacts

•Potential mode shift from alternate modes, e.g., transit, biking, or walking

•Increased emphasis on carpooling and teleworking to reduce impacts to highways

Freight Transportation Response

Increased frequency, duration, and intensity of droughts; increased coastal and inland flooding

•Restricted access to ports and shipping channels for inland waterways

•Mode shift – e.g., from inland waterways to highways due to changes in reliability

Increase in magnitude and duration of severe heat waves

•Mandatory freight diversion to more robust alternate routes

•Dynamic or seasonal restrictions for trucks or rail during times of high heat, reducing either acceptable speed or weight  

•Policy and regulation changes to restrict truck size and weights for the entire roadway network or specific highway classes

When we think about proactive operations, especially those actions that may be influenced by climate change, these are the areas that begin to rise to the surface.

Conclusions:

•Impacts are going to manifest both due to specific weather events/phenomena but also long term trends in air temperature.

•The link between weather events and climate is not simplistic but recent severe weather events point to the challenges posed to operations.

•The scale, frequency, intensity of events will change how operation agencies are organized and function in the country